Fact #687: August 8, 2011 The Transportation Petroleum Gap

In 1989 the transportation sector petroleum consumption surpassed U.S. petroleum production for the first time, creating a gap that must be met with imports of petroleum. By the year 2035, transportation petroleum consumption is expected to grow to almost 17 million barrels per day; at that time, the gap between U.S. production and transportation consumption will be almost 4 million barrels per day (when including the non-petroleum sources).

U.S. Petroleum Production and Transportation Consumption, 1970-2035

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Note: The U.S. Production has two lines after 2005. The solid line is conventional sources of petroleum, including crude oil, natural gas plant liquids, and refinery gains. The dashed line adds in other non-petroleum sources, including ethanol, biomass, liquids from coal, other blending components, other hydrocarbons, and ethers. The sharp increase in values between 2009 and 2010 is caused by the data change from historical to projected values. The sharp increase in the value for heavy trucks between 2006 and 2007 is the result of FHWA's methodology change.

Supporting Information

**Historical and Future U.S. Petroleum Production and Transportation Petroleum Use (Million barrels per day)**
Year	Autos	Light Trucks	Medium & Heavy Trucks	Air	Water	Off-Highway	Rail	Pipeline	Total Trans-portation	U.S. Petroleum Production with Other Inputs 2007-on (dotted line)	U.S. Petroleum Production without Other Inputs 2007-on
1970	4.01	0.73	0.79	0.62	0.40	0.35	0.47	0.26	7.62	11.66	11.66
1971	4.22	0.80	0.82	0.62	0.37	0.34	0.48	0.26	7.90	11.54	11.54
1972	4.50	0.89	0.90	0.62	0.37	0.33	0.49	0.27	8.38	11.61	11.61
1973	4.63	0.99	0.99	0.65	0.42	0.34	0.47	0.28	8.78	11.40	11.40
1974	4.40	0.98	0.99	0.59	0.42	0.31	0.44	0.29	8.43	10.94	10.94
1975	4.40	1.13	1.00	0.60	0.44	0.32	0.40	0.26	8.55	10.47	10.47
1976	4.65	1.23	1.06	0.63	0.51	0.33	0.38	0.27	9.06	10.24	10.24
1977	4.70	1.32	1.17	0.64	0.56	0.32	0.37	0.28	9.36	10.39	10.39
1978	4.80	1.43	1.30	0.67	0.65	0.31	0.37	0.28	9.80	10.77	10.77
1979	4.56	1.44	1.34	0.70	0.54	0.32	0.41	0.29	9.60	10.66	10.66
1980	4.17	1.41	1.34	0.68	0.66	0.32	0.42	0.28	9.26	10.80	10.80
1981	4.12	1.40	1.36	0.69	0.60	0.31	0.43	0.27	9.16	10.69	10.69
1982	4.11	1.34	1.35	0.68	0.50	0.28	0.40	0.23	8.90	10.73	10.73
1983	4.17	1.41	1.38	0.68	0.46	0.28	0.35	0.23	8.95	10.73	10.73
1984	4.18	1.51	1.43	0.76	0.46	0.34	0.37	0.25	9.29	11.09	11.09
1985	4.23	1.61	1.43	0.79	0.41	0.35	0.36	0.24	9.42	11.14	11.14
1986	4.33	1.71	1.47	0.86	0.63	0.35	0.35	0.23	9.93	10.85	10.85
1987	4.34	1.80	1.52	0.90	0.65	0.36	0.37	0.24	10.17	10.58	10.58
1988	4.34	1.93	1.55	0.93	0.67	0.36	0.41	0.24	10.43	10.45	10.45
1989	4.37	1.96	1.59	0.94	0.72	0.34	0.42	0.24	10.59	9.82	9.82
1990	4.12	2.10	1.65	0.98	0.68	0.36	0.44	0.24	10.57	9.60	9.60
1991	3.80	2.26	1.69	0.92	0.72	0.37	0.41	0.23	10.38	9.79	9.79
1992	3.87	2.42	1.73	0.93	0.76	0.35	0.40	0.23	10.67	9.67	9.67
1993	3.96	2.53	1.78	0.94	0.68	0.30	0.42	0.24	10.84	9.35	9.35
1994	4.01	2.61	1.87	0.98	0.66	0.31	0.45	0.25	11.14	9.16	9.16
1995	4.02	2.69	1.95	1.01	0.69	0.32	0.46	0.26	11.40	9.10	9.10
1996	4.09	2.79	2.00	1.04	0.67	0.32	0.46	0.27	11.65	9.16	9.16
1997	4.13	2.91	2.02	1.09	0.59	0.34	0.48	0.27	11.83	9.12	9.12
1998	4.23	2.98	2.08	1.12	0.58	0.34	0.42	0.27	12.03	8.90	8.90
1999	4.33	3.12	2.29	1.17	0.65	0.32	0.43	0.28	12.58	8.62	8.62
2000	4.31	3.12	2.37	1.20	0.69	0.33	0.43	0.28	12.73	8.70	8.70
2001	4.34	3.15	2.36	1.14	0.56	0.35	0.42	0.29	12.61	8.57	8.57
2002	4.45	3.25	2.46	1.05	0.59	0.36	0.44	0.29	12.88	8.58	8.58
2003	4.39	3.57	2.40	1.05	0.51	0.36	0.40	0.29	12.96	8.37	8.37
2004	4.43	3.71	2.23	1.11	0.61	0.37	0.39	0.31	13.16	8.30	8.30
2005	4.54	3.45	2.49	1.17	0.65	0.38	0.40	0.31	13.38	7.89	7.89
2006	4.43	3.57	2.54	1.19	0.69	0.38	0.40	0.32	13.49	7.84	7.84
2007	4.38	3.63	3.15	1.19	0.74	0.38	0.42	0.31	14.18	7.84	7.84
2008	4.20	3.58	3.18	1.13	0.65	0.38	0.43	0.30	13.84	7.75	7.75
2009	4.19	3.59	2.97	1.01	0.61	0.38	0.41	0.26	13.41	8.18	8.18
2010	4.07	4.91	2.25	1.29	0.59	0.42	0.26	0.43	14.22	9.51	8.50
2011	4.05	4.96	2.36	1.25	0.59	0.43	0.27	0.42	14.32	9.64	8.41
2012	4.04	5.04	2.44	1.26	0.59	0.44	0.28	0.42	14.50	9.79	8.55
2013	4.05	5.08	2.55	1.26	0.59	0.45	0.28	0.42	14.67	10.05	8.77
2014	4.05	5.10	2.56	1.28	0.59	0.45	0.29	0.42	14.74	10.27	8.96
2015	4.06	5.11	2.60	1.30	0.59	0.45	0.30	0.42	14.83	10.47	9.05
2016	4.09	5.11	2.63	1.31	0.59	0.45	0.30	0.42	14.90	10.71	9.21
2017	4.11	5.11	2.66	1.32	0.60	0.46	0.31	0.42	14.99	10.97	9.35
2018	4.14	5.08	2.69	1.34	0.60	0.47	0.31	0.42	15.05	11.11	9.41
2019	4.18	5.04	2.72	1.35	0.60	0.48	0.31	0.42	15.10	11.22	9.45
2020	4.23	5.01	2.75	1.36	0.60	0.48	0.32	0.42	15.16	11.32	9.46
2021	4.28	4.95	2.78	1.38	0.60	0.48	0.32	0.42	15.20	11.33	9.49
2022	4.35	4.91	2.81	1.39	0.62	0.48	0.33	0.42	15.31	11.56	9.56
2023	4.42	4.89	2.84	1.40	0.62	0.49	0.33	0.40	15.40	11.73	9.59
2024	4.51	4.87	2.87	1.41	0.62	0.50	0.33	0.40	15.51	11.85	9.54
2025	4.60	4.84	2.90	1.42	0.62	0.50	0.34	0.40	15.62	11.88	9.48
2026	4.67	4.82	2.93	1.43	0.62	0.50	0.34	0.40	15.72	11.91	9.43
2027	4.75	4.79	2.95	1.44	0.62	0.51	0.34	0.40	15.80	11.99	9.41
2028	4.82	4.78	2.98	1.44	0.62	0.51	0.34	0.40	15.90	12.14	9.47
2029	4.92	4.77	3.01	1.45	0.62	0.52	0.35	0.42	16.06	12.28	9.46
2030	5.00	4.77	3.05	1.46	0.62	0.52	0.35	0.42	16.19	12.41	9.49
2031	5.09	4.77	3.08	1.47	0.62	0.52	0.35	0.42	16.32	12.61	9.58
2032	5.17	4.77	3.12	1.47	0.63	0.52	0.35	0.42	16.45	12.83	9.74
2033	5.25	4.78	3.15	1.47	0.63	0.52	0.36	0.42	16.58	12.96	9.80
2034	5.34	4.78	3.18	1.48	0.63	0.52	0.36	0.42	16.71	13.08	9.84
2035	5.42	4.78	3.21	1.48	0.63	0.52	0.36	0.43	16.83	13.05	9.77
Sources: 1973-2009 from Davis, S.C, Diegel, S.W., and Boundy, R.G., "Transportation Energy Data Book: Edition 30," Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN, 2011. 2010-2035 from EIA, "Annual Energy Outlook 2011," Energy Information Administration, DOE/EIA-0383(2011), U.S. Department of Energy, Washington, DC, 2011.

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U.S. Petroleum Production and Transportation Consumption, 1970-2035 Image

Supporting Information

U.S. Petroleum Production and Transportation Consumption, 1970-2035

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