Fact #829: July 14, 2014 The Transportation Petroleum Gap

In 1989 petroleum consumption in the transportation sector surpassed U.S. petroleum production for the first time, creating a gap that must be met with imports of petroleum. In 2009, however, the U.S. production of petroleum began to increase. The Energy Information Administration expects petroleum production to be nearly equal to transportation consumption by about 2020. When including non-petroleum sources, the production will exceed transportation demand (see note below for details on the non-petroleum sources).

United States Petroleum Production and Transportation Petroleum Consumption, 1970–2040

Image

Notes:

The U.S. Production has two lines after 2011. The solid line is conventional sources of petroleum, including crude oil, natural gas plant liquids, and refinery gains. The dashed line adds in other non-petroleum sources, including ethanol, biomass, liquids from coal, other blending components, other hydrocarbons, and ethers.
The sharp increase in values between 2012 and 2013 are caused by the data change from historical to projected values. The sharp increase in the value for heavy trucks between 2006 and 2007 is the result of the FHWA’s methodology change.

Supporting Information

U.S. Petroleum Production and Transportation Petroleum Consumption, 1970-2040
(Million barrels per day)
Year	Autos	Light Trucks	Medium & Heavy Trucks	Air	Water	Off-Highway	Rail	Pipeline	Total Transportation	U.S. Petroleum Production with Other Inputs 2013-on (dotted line)	U.S. Petroleum Production without Other Inputs (solid line)
1970	4.01	0.73	0.79	0.62	0.40	0.35	0.26	0.47	7.62	11.66	11.66
1971	4.22	0.80	0.83	0.62	0.37	0.34	0.26	0.48	7.90	11.54	11.54
1972	4.50	0.89	0.90	0.62	0.37	0.33	0.27	0.49	8.38	11.57	11.57
1973	4.64	0.99	0.99	0.65	0.42	0.34	0.28	0.47	8.78	11.40	11.40
1974	4.40	0.98	0.99	0.59	0.42	0.31	0.29	0.44	8.43	10.94	10.94
1975	4.40	1.13	1.01	0.60	0.44	0.32	0.26	0.40	8.55	10.47	10.47
1976	4.65	1.23	1.06	0.63	0.51	0.33	0.27	0.38	9.06	10.21	10.21
1977	4.70	1.32	1.17	0.64	0.56	0.32	0.28	0.37	9.36	10.39	10.39
1978	4.80	1.43	1.30	0.67	0.65	0.31	0.28	0.37	9.80	10.77	10.77
1979	4.56	1.44	1.34	0.70	0.54	0.32	0.29	0.41	9.60	10.66	10.66
1980	4.17	1.41	1.34	0.68	0.66	0.32	0.28	0.42	9.26	10.77	10.77
1981	4.12	1.40	1.36	0.69	0.60	0.31	0.27	0.43	9.16	10.69	10.69
1982	4.11	1.34	1.35	0.68	0.50	0.28	0.23	0.40	8.90	10.73	10.73
1983	4.17	1.41	1.38	0.68	0.46	0.28	0.23	0.35	8.95	10.73	10.73
1984	4.19	1.51	1.43	0.76	0.46	0.34	0.25	0.37	9.29	11.06	11.06
1985	4.23	1.61	1.43	0.79	0.41	0.35	0.24	0.36	9.42	11.14	11.14
1986	4.33	1.71	1.47	0.86	0.63	0.35	0.23	0.35	9.93	10.85	10.85
1987	4.34	1.80	1.52	0.90	0.65	0.36	0.24	0.37	10.17	10.58	10.58
1988	4.34	1.93	1.55	0.93	0.67	0.36	0.24	0.41	10.43	10.42	10.42
1989	4.37	1.96	1.59	0.94	0.72	0.34	0.24	0.42	10.59	9.82	9.82
1990	4.12	2.10	1.65	0.97	0.68	0.36	0.24	0.44	10.55	9.60	9.60
1991	3.80	2.26	1.69	0.91	0.72	0.37	0.23	0.41	10.37	9.79	9.79
1992	3.87	2.42	1.73	0.92	0.76	0.35	0.23	0.40	10.66	9.64	9.64
1993	3.96	2.53	1.78	0.94	0.68	0.30	0.24	0.42	10.84	9.35	9.35
1994	4.01	2.61	1.87	0.98	0.66	0.31	0.25	0.45	11.14	9.16	9.16
1995	4.02	2.69	1.95	1.01	0.69	0.32	0.26	0.46	11.40	9.10	9.10
1996	4.09	2.80	2.00	1.04	0.67	0.32	0.27	0.46	11.65	9.13	9.13
1997	4.13	2.91	2.02	1.09	0.59	0.34	0.27	0.48	11.83	9.12	9.12
1998	4.23	2.98	2.09	1.08	0.58	0.34	0.27	0.42	11.99	8.90	8.90
1999	4.33	3.12	2.29	1.17	0.65	0.32	0.28	0.43	12.58	8.62	8.62
2000	4.31	3.12	2.38	1.21	0.69	0.33	0.28	0.43	12.74	8.68	8.68
2001	4.34	3.15	2.37	1.13	0.56	0.35	0.29	0.42	12.60	8.57	8.57
2002	4.45	3.25	2.47	1.05	0.59	0.36	0.29	0.44	12.89	8.58	8.58
2003	4.38	3.57	2.40	1.07	0.51	0.36	0.29	0.40	12.98	8.34	8.34
2004	4.42	3.71	2.23	1.16	0.61	0.37	0.31	0.39	13.21	8.30	8.30
2005	4.54	3.45	2.50	1.20	0.65	0.38	0.31	0.40	13.41	7.89	7.89
2006	4.41	3.57	2.55	1.19	0.69	0.38	0.32	0.40	13.49	7.82	7.82
2007	4.38	3.63	3.14	1.19	0.74	0.39	0.31	0.42	14.20	7.86	7.86
2008	4.20	3.58	3.18	1.13	0.69	0.40	0.30	0.43	13.91	7.78	7.78
2009	3.91	3.61	2.96	1.01	0.63	0.42	0.26	0.44	13.22	8.24	8.24
2010	3.64	3.77	3.00	1.02	0.70	0.42	0.27	0.44	13.26	8.61	8.61
2011	3.49	3.83	2.83	1.02	0.66	0.42	0.29	0.45	12.98	8.95	8.95
2012	3.39	3.86	2.82	0.99	0.56	0.39	0.28	0.47	12.78	9.95	9.95
2013	4.00	4.65	2.64	1.20	0.42	0.37	0.25	0.46	14.00	11.10	11.10
2014	3.94	4.60	2.69	1.20	0.42	0.38	0.23	0.46	13.92	13.25	12.09
2015	3.87	4.55	2.77	1.21	0.43	0.37	0.24	0.45	13.89	13.90	12.71
2016	3.84	4.54	2.85	1.22	0.44	0.37	0.24	0.44	13.93	14.48	13.28
2017	3.80	4.52	2.89	1.23	0.44	0.37	0.23	0.45	13.92	14.54	13.33
2018	3.75	4.49	2.91	1.24	0.44	0.36	0.23	0.45	13.88	14.57	13.35
2019	3.71	4.44	2.93	1.25	0.44	0.36	0.24	0.46	13.81	14.60	13.37
2020	3.66	4.38	2.95	1.25	0.44	0.36	0.24	0.47	13.74	14.52	13.28
2021	3.60	4.32	2.98	1.26	0.44	0.36	0.24	0.48	13.67	14.35	13.10
2022	3.55	4.25	3.01	1.26	0.44	0.36	0.24	0.48	13.59	14.31	13.05
2023	3.49	4.18	3.04	1.27	0.44	0.36	0.24	0.48	13.51	14.28	13.02
2024	3.43	4.11	3.07	1.27	0.44	0.37	0.24	0.48	13.41	14.20	12.93
2025	3.37	4.03	3.11	1.28	0.44	0.37	0.24	0.49	13.32	14.14	12.87
2026	3.31	3.96	3.14	1.28	0.45	0.37	0.24	0.49	13.25	13.99	12.72
2027	3.27	3.89	3.17	1.29	0.45	0.38	0.24	0.50	13.18	13.84	12.57
2028	3.23	3.83	3.19	1.29	0.45	0.38	0.24	0.51	13.12	13.69	12.42
2029	3.20	3.78	3.22	1.30	0.45	0.38	0.24	0.52	13.08	13.56	12.29
2030	3.17	3.74	3.25	1.30	0.45	0.39	0.24	0.52	13.05	13.51	12.24
2031	3.15	3.70	3.28	1.30	0.45	0.39	0.24	0.52	13.03	13.40	12.12
2032	3.14	3.67	3.30	1.30	0.45	0.39	0.24	0.53	13.01	13.33	12.06
2033	3.13	3.64	3.33	1.30	0.45	0.40	0.24	0.53	13.01	13.31	12.03
2034	3.12	3.61	3.37	1.30	0.45	0.40	0.24	0.53	13.02	13.26	11.98
2035	3.11	3.59	3.41	1.30	0.45	0.41	0.23	0.53	13.04	13.14	11.87
2036	3.11	3.57	3.46	1.30	0.46	0.41	0.23	0.53	13.06	13.00	11.73
2037	3.11	3.55	3.50	1.30	0.46	0.41	0.23	0.53	13.09	12.98	11.71
2038	3.11	3.54	3.54	1.31	0.46	0.42	0.23	0.53	13.13	12.82	11.55
2039	3.12	3.53	3.58	1.31	0.46	0.42	0.23	0.54	13.18	12.78	11.50
2040	3.12	3.52	3.62	1.31	0.46	0.43	0.23	0.54	13.22	12.70	11.42
Sources: Historical: Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Transportation Energy Data Book: Edition 33, July 2014. Projections: Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2014, May 2014.

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