In 1989 the transportation sector petroleum consumption surpassed U.S. petroleum production for the first time, creating a gap that must be met with imports of petroleum. By the year 2035, transportation petroleum consumption is expected to grow to more than 17 million barrels per day; at that time, the gap between U.S. production and transportation consumption will be about 5 million barrels per day (when including the non-petroleum sources).

U.S. Petroleum Production and Consumption, 1970-2035
Image

Note: The U.S. Production has two lines after 2005. The solid line is conventional sources of petroleum, including crude oil, natural gas plant liquids, and refinery gains. The dashed line adds in other non-petroleum sources, including ethanol, biomass, liquids from coal, other blending components, other hydrocarbons, and ethers. The sharp increase in values between 2007 and 2008 are caused by the data change from historical to projected values.

Supporting Information

Historical and Future U.S. Petroleum Production and Transportation Petroleum Use (Million barrels per day)
YearAutosLight TrucksMedium & Heavy TrucksAirWaterOff-HighwayRailPipelineTotal TransportationU.S. Petroleum Production with Other Inputs 2007-on (dotted line)U.S. Petroleum Production without Other Inputs 2007-on
19704.0080.7270.7940.6170.3970.3470.2620.4687.62111.65611.656
19714.2200.7960.8250.6160.3690.3390.2630.4787.90611.53711.537
19724.4950.8940.8990.6210.3760.3310.2740.4908.38011.60511.605
19734.6350.9930.9860.6500.4250.3380.2840.4718.78311.39911.399
19744.4010.9830.9870.5920.4170.3140.2930.4418.42810.94210.942
19754.3991.1261.0050.6020.4400.3160.2640.3978.54710.46710.467
19764.6481.2291.0620.6300.5140.3270.2740.3799.06410.24110.241
19774.6971.3211.1720.6380.5580.3230.2790.3719.35910.38710.387
19784.7951.4261.2980.6720.6550.3100.2780.3709.80510.77110.771
19794.5591.4431.3420.7030.5450.3160.2870.4069.60010.66210.662
19804.1691.4051.3360.6770.6600.3170.2780.4239.26510.79710.797
19814.1191.4001.3550.6870.6010.3050.2650.4279.15810.68810.688
19824.1091.3401.3500.6820.5040.2830.2270.4048.89810.72910.729
19834.1681.4121.3800.6800.4620.2780.2260.3508.95510.73410.734
19844.1851.5101.4260.7600.4570.3370.2510.3699.29511.09211.092
19854.2301.6121.4340.7920.4130.3500.2350.3579.42411.13811.138
19864.3271.7141.4730.8610.6270.3520.2300.3479.93210.84710.847
19874.3371.8041.5230.8970.6530.3560.2350.36510.16910.58310.583
19884.3381.9261.5530.9340.6710.3570.2410.41310.43210.44810.448
19894.3731.9631.5910.9360.7180.3420.2430.42110.5879.8209.820
19904.1152.1021.6540.9810.6830.3570.2390.43610.5679.5979.597
19913.8032.2551.6910.9160.7210.3650.2260.40610.3829.7919.791
19923.8702.4171.7250.9300.7570.3450.2310.39910.6759.6679.667
19933.9642.5301.7760.9380.6800.3000.2390.41810.8459.3499.349
19944.0132.6051.8710.9780.6600.3090.2540.44911.1409.1569.156
19954.0222.6901.9471.0110.6950.3160.2640.45711.4009.0969.096
19964.0902.7951.9991.0420.6670.3230.2700.46211.6479.1579.157
19974.1262.9132.0211.0870.5910.3370.2710.48311.8289.1189.118
19984.2332.9772.0851.1200.5820.3370.2730.42412.0318.8978.897
19994.3273.1182.2861.1670.6470.3200.2830.42912.5768.6178.617
20004.3113.1212.3751.2040.6870.3260.2840.42712.7348.7048.704
20014.3393.1542.3661.1390.5610.3480.2850.41812.6108.5738.573
20024.4473.1562.4691.0450.5900.3550.2860.44012.7878.5828.582
20034.3833.5672.4011.0470.5080.3640.2910.40112.9638.3748.374
20044.4193.7132.2331.1090.6140.3720.3070.38813.1578.3028.302
20054.5363.4462.4951.1700.6470.3760.3100.39813.3787.8857.885
20064.4143.5662.5461.1860.6860.3760.3160.39813.4887.8357.835
20074.3683.6262.5831.1850.7360.3760.3110.41713.6037.8437.843
20084.1104.7742.4451.3300.6630.4030.3090.44014.4748.5247.743
20094.0254.7402.2111.2780.6260.4150.2970.43014.0228.9928.029
20104.0704.8992.2281.2820.6440.4210.2740.43214.2499.1128.020
20114.1055.0642.3341.2570.6640.4250.2720.42114.5429.4118.236
20124.0645.1162.4381.2670.6670.4350.2860.41814.6919.4958.280
20134.0275.1242.5091.2850.6700.4450.2960.40914.7649.7498.445
20143.9995.1192.5521.3010.6720.4540.3020.41114.8109.8918.516
20153.9885.1012.5861.3250.6750.4540.3080.41914.85610.0048.585
20164.0015.0792.6191.3450.6770.4540.3080.42014.90410.0678.565
20174.0375.0672.6541.3660.6800.4620.3140.42315.00110.2328.670
20184.0565.0202.6951.3870.6830.4690.3170.42715.05410.3868.787
20194.1204.9982.7411.4070.6860.4780.3220.43015.18110.6038.957
20204.2004.9662.7831.4270.6890.4770.3260.43215.30010.7669.057
20214.2924.9352.8131.4460.6900.4750.3280.43015.41110.8949.099
20224.4064.9312.8411.4620.6920.4830.3320.43215.58011.0249.054
20234.4854.8852.8801.4760.6940.4910.3340.45715.70310.9578.976
20244.5724.8442.9281.4880.6980.5000.3360.48615.85210.9988.963
20254.6664.8102.9791.4990.7000.4990.3380.48915.98011.1519.041
20264.7624.7883.0311.5090.7030.5040.3430.49116.13011.2969.104
20274.8554.7733.0811.5180.7060.5090.3430.49516.27911.4829.185
20284.9194.7343.1291.5260.7080.5130.3460.50016.37511.5289.149
20294.9924.7083.1771.5350.7100.5180.3490.50016.48811.6269.166
20305.0884.7083.2301.5430.7120.5230.3500.50216.65611.6999.149
20315.1824.7043.2811.5520.7130.5180.3540.50216.80711.8069.122
20325.2684.6963.3311.5590.7150.5180.3550.50516.94611.9369.149
20335.3804.7153.3861.5650.7180.5180.3570.50517.14412.2009.304
20345.4744.7203.4441.5730.7200.5180.3590.50717.31512.3019.278
20355.5674.7293.5071.5800.7220.5230.3610.50817.49612.3399.234

Sources:
1973-2007 from Davis, S.C. and Diegel, S.W., "Transportation Energy Data Book: Edition 28," Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN, 2009.
2008-2035 from EIA, "Annual Energy Outlook 2010," Energy Information Administration, DOE/EIA-0383(2010), U.S. Department of Energy, Washington, DC, 2010.

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