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LED Lighting Forecast

The DOE report Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination Applications estimates the energy savings of LED white-light sources over the analysis period of 2013 to 2030. With declining costs and improving performance, LED products have been seeing increased adoption for general illumination applications. This is a positive development in terms of energy consumption, as LEDs use significantly less electricity per lumen produced than many traditional lighting technologies.

Using an econometric model that relies on assumptions of projected efficacy, retail price, and operating life, annual lighting energy consumption in nine major lighting submarkets is forecasted under a Reference Scenario that is based on a continuance of current trends in LED price and performance. The difference between this forecast and the projected energy consumption under a No-LED Scenario (which hypothesizes no additional market penetration of LEDs beyond current levels) indicates the anticipated energy savings from LED lighting.

Under the Reference Scenario, LED lighting is projected to achieve a market share of 84% of lumen-hour sales in the general illumination market by 2030, reducing lighting energy consumption in that year alone by 40%, for a savings of 3.0 quads (261 terawatt-hours) - worth over $26 billion at today’s energy prices and equivalent to the total energy consumed by nearly 24 million U.S. homes.

Though these energy savings are impressive, there is a huge opportunity for even further savings by accelerating investment in cost and efficacy improvements. The report's sensitivity analysis shows that meeting DOE's ambitious goals for price and efficacy in all LED lighting products would increase the energy savings by 20%. DOE is committed to helping our country realize this potential.