More than 200 lighting leaders from across North America gathered in Portland, OR, November 12–14, 2013, for the eighth annual Solid-State Lighting (SSL) Market Introduction Workshop, hosted by DOE. The diverse audience spanned the spectrum: industry, government, efficiency organizations, utilities, municipalities, designers, specifiers, retailers, and distributors. The purpose was to share the latest insights, updates, and strategies for the successful market introduction of high-quality solid-state lighting products.
Pre-Conference Educational Sessions
The Question of Cost-Effectiveness
A panel discussion on cost-effectiveness from the utility perspective followed, moderated by Marc Ledbetter of PNNL. His PNNL colleague Jason Tuenge reviewed a new DOE report, SSL Pricing and Efficacy Trend Analysis for Utility Program Planning, which was created in response to requests from utilities and energy-efficiency organizations for information to help them forecast the order in which important SSL applications will become cost-effective and estimate when each "tipping point" will be reached. Projected average efficacies of LED lighting products are below DOE's 2017 targets, but leading products might still reach these goals on or ahead of schedule. LED lamp $/klm pricing is expected to decrease roughly 55 percent by 2017, relative to current pricing. A more modest decrease of 30 percent is projected for LED luminaires over this same period.
John Delany of Commonwealth Edison remarked on how quickly LED lighting is becoming a significant part of the portfolios of many utilities and energy-efficiency programs. He observed that in his organization's commercial and industrial midstream program, SSL incentives skyrocketed from 60,000 lamps in the program year ending May 31, 2012 (yielding a 2 percent gross load reduction), to 215,000 lamps one year later (yielding a gross load reduction of 27 percent) – and are projected to jump to 325,000 lamps for the current program year, representing 41 percent of gross load reduction. Delany said it's very difficult for utilities to put together a long-term, comprehensive lighting strategy because "the bar is constantly moving, so it continues to be a challenge."
Denise Fong of Candela Lighting Design and Consulting talked about the process of determining whether to use SSL in the design phase of a project, using as an example a Seattle office building/laboratory that was still under construction. She noted that because of Seattle's strict energy codes, a certain amount of lighting controls are required, and that SSL's controllability plays very nicely into that. Fong said that the cost of an LED lighting system worked out to be only 31 cents/square foot more than the cost of a fluorescent system, with that figure rising to as much as $1.70/square foot if the LEDs were to be compatible with specific controls. She explained that on a project of that size, the additional cost for SSL is not a big factor, and said the Seattle client opted for LEDs compatible with sophisticated controls that the contractor was familiar with.
Product Evolution
Next on the agenda was a panel discussion on LED lighting product evolution, moderated by Jeff McCullough of PNNL. His PNNL colleague Marc Ledbetter provided an overview of the changes over the past few years, with an emphasis on how dynamic the technology is. Ledbetter noted that SSL products continue to improve rapidly for a wide range of performance attributes – from efficacy, to thermal management, to optics – and that the number of applications for which they perform well and are cost-effective continues to grow, with multiple form factors giving luminaire designers much more freedom to address various problems. He cautioned that not all problems have been solved, and there remains considerable room for improvement. Ledbetter advised energy-efficiency program planners to update their analyses and program plans often, because in such a fast-moving market, they quickly get out of date.
Mike Watson of Cree noted that his company's first LED downlight, introduced in 2007, had 42 LEDs, consumed 12 watts, and wholesaled for $100, whereas the latest generation has three LEDs, consumes 9.5 watts, and retails for $19.97. He attributed this dramatic improvement to innovation on all fronts and said the SSL industry is becoming adept at improving product performance but needs to start listening to customers more. Watson advocated starting the transition to an opportunity-focused evolution that demonstrates what can be done and prepares for elements of required standardization while allowing for differentiation. Such an evolution, he said, should also convert an industry mentality from performance and price to value, from backwards-looking to forward-looking form and functions, and from disposable commodities to transferable assets.
LED Lighting Facts® Recognition
Brodrick next gave special recognition to 11 LED Lighting Facts partners who have demonstrated their commitment to actively and creatively integrate LED Lighting Facts into their selection process for SSL:
- California Investor Owned Utilities, which not only requires that screw-in residential LED products be listed in the LED Lighting Facts database, but also that they meet the California Quality LED Specifications designed by the California Energy Commission
- Cordelia Lighting, which has been committed to listing every solid-state luminaire with LED Lighting Facts since the inception of the program
- Cree, which utilizes LED Lighting Facts across various indoor and outdoor product lines to support claims with utilities and consumers
- Energy Trust of Oregon, which uses LED Lighting Facts to identify and analyze new applications for LED lighting
- Kenall, which uses the LED Lighting Facts program to help drive specifications toward products that are on the Products List, because the third-party verification process promotes quality through fair comparison
- Northeast Energy Efficiency Partnership, whose DesignLights Consortium® SSL Qualified Products List requires manufacturers to list products with LED Lighting Facts prior to submitting an application
- Philips, which values the LED Lighting Facts program's ability to assure customers that its products have been tested and verified to meet high quality standards
- Priority Lighting, which includes the LED Lighting Facts label on all shipments because it believes that this gives customers confidence in the products they are purchasing
- Switch Lighting, which uses LED Lighting Facts labels to communicate product value to discerning customers, such as retail buyers, lighting professionals, savvy users, and utilities
- The Home Depot, which utilizes the LED Lighting Facts program as a baseline in the review and selection of LED products from its suppliers
- Grainger, which since 2009 has required new and existing suppliers to list products with the LED Lighting Facts program.
Market Evolution
Chris Brown of Wiedenbach Brown talked about how SSL is changing lighting-product distribution. He noted that whereas five years ago his company was essentially a purveyor of light bulbs made by a few manufacturers, today he's in the semiconductor business, deals with more than a dozen suppliers, and is faced with such new considerations as color shift, lumen depreciation, and who made the driver and other components. Brown said that because of its unique attributes, SSL will change the paradigm for the lighting industry. For example, if all lamps and luminaires last for 25,000+ hours, the need for replacements and maintenance will be considerably smaller than today. Brown advised today's lighting companies to start thinking about how to change their game plan to ensure that they'll still be in business five years from now.
Mark Voykovic of The Home Depot (THD) remarked on how dramatically the lighting marketplace has changed – and is still changing. He noted that even in 2013, new players have entered the SSL market, and LED replacement lamps are getting closer to resembling true A19 and BR30 form factors. Voykovic observed that between 2011 and 2013, sales of LEDs more than doubled and now account for more than 20 percent of THD's overall light bulb sales. He noted that customers aren't just purchasing a few LED lamps; many are purchasing larger quantities, indicating that they're satisfied enough after trying them out to retrofit their homes or workplaces. Voykovic emphasized that it's important to ensure that consumers are satisfied with these products, to avoid the problems that hampered the adoption of CFLs in the 1990s.
L Prize® PAR38 Competition
Brodrick then presented an update on the PAR38 category of the L Prize® competition. He noted that although there are many LED PAR38 lamps on the market, none come close to meeting the L Prize specifications, which include an efficacy of 123 lm/W, a light output of 1,350 lumens, a CRI greater than 90, a color temperature of 2700-3000K, and a beam angle of 9-15º. Using what happened in the competition's 60W category to illustrate his points, Brodrick stated that the PAR38 winner will not only be the leader in that category and set the bar for the market, but will receive invaluable publicity and receive a $5 million cash prize. "(The winner is) going to be the only cold beer on the beach," he said, "and (the winning product will) be a true spotlight."
At an evening reception sponsored by the Next Generation Lighting Industry Alliance, attendees had an opportunity to network and also learn more about controls, flicker, and color quality at three interactive PNNL exhibits. In addition, there was a hands-on display that showed the status of LED bulbs being sold in Asia, plus demonstrations by Cree and Lighting Science Group that illustrated some of what was discussed in the panel on product evolution earlier in the day.
National Resources and Tools
Taylor Jantz-Sell of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency spoke about its ENERGY STAR® program for lighting, which targets consumers and incorporated its first SSL products in 2007, starting with directional niche applications such as downlights and undercabinet lights, and later adding replacement lamps. She noted that the program added third-party certification in 2011, and added that there is now a platform for challenge testing, as well as for retesting if products undergo significant changes after they've been certified. Jantz-Sell cited dimmability testing as one of the notable changes in the program, explaining that in order to be listed as dimmable, products now have to be tested with at least five different dimmers and dim down to at least 20 percent. Other changes, she said, include expanding allowable color temperatures for LED lamps up to 6500 K.
Sanders reviewed some of the changes that were recently made to the LED Lighting Facts program, which has doubled in size each year since its launch in 2008. Emphasizing that DOE continues to evolve the program to keep pace with the market, based on stakeholder feedback, she noted that two months ago LED Lighting Facts began allowing manufacturers to group related products as a family, testing only one member of that family and calculating the performance of the others based on the performance of that one representative product. Sanders also discussed the verification testing program that's been implemented to ensure that the posted performance information remains reliable and accurate, and she went over some refinements that have been made to the website, as well as the requirement that product information be updated annually.
Regional Resources and Tools
A related panel focused on regional programs in the Pacific Northwest, looking at how they're evolving their programs to meet user needs and drive energy savings. Moderator Elaine Miller of Northwest Energy Efficiency Alliance (NEEA) explained how her organization accelerates the market adoption of energy-efficient products, services, and practices by scanning the market for potential opportunities and championing them to fill the pipeline. She illustrated this process with an example of how NEEA enabled the market adoption of luminaire-level lighting controls by addressing barriers around product reliability, availability, price, and measurement of savings and other value propositions. Miller reviewed the results of a recent survey of 12 northwest lighting distributors, which found that LED products accounted for 4 percent of total linear fluorescent, high-intensity discharge, and SSL sales in 2012, with participants estimating a 60-percent increase in 2013.
Fred Gordon of Energy Trust of Oregon (ETO) described his organization's cautious approach to incentivizing SSL, which he said is starting to pay off as products improve and costs come down. He said that in his region, the use of LED fixtures alone has saved nearly 1 million kilowatt-hours so far in 2013. Gordon reviewed ETO's rollout history for LEDs, which began in 2010 with recessed downlights and now includes many more applications, such as streetlights, floodlights, exterior wall-mount, and extremely high-bay – with plans to add prescriptive troffers and troffer kits, parking garage luminaires, and several other applications soon. He noted that because of cost, safety, performance, and other issues, ETO doesn't promote LED replacement tubes and is also holding back on a number of other product categories for the time being.
Kurt Nielsen of Seattle Lighting Design Lab (LDL) described how his organization created a Qualified LED Products List to help utilities determine the relative quality of LED lighting products that were being specified for projects requesting rebate funding, when ENERGY STAR and the DLC were taking too long to qualify products and were sometimes too narrow in scope for potential LED applications. He discussed the LDL's series of Lighting Design Guides, which were created to meet NEEA's need for materials to train contractors, energy service companies, and facility managers on how to properly evaluate energy-efficient lighting options for specific applications. Nielsen also talked about the Quick Reference Light Level Guide the LDL created for specifiers who don't always have access to the cumbersome, 1,300-page IES Lighting Handbook 10th Edition.
Managing Risks
Michael Poplawski of PNNL talked about managing risks associated with the dimming of SSL products. He noted that although LED sources are inherently controllable, most control technologies were designed for incandescent products. Poplawski explained that dimming an LED source can change the behavior of the driver, resulting in flicker, a shift in LED chromaticity, degraded efficiency or power quality, and performance variations at different input voltages. The determining factors of SSL dimming performance, he said, depend on the characteristics of the driver, the characteristics of the dimmer, and the number and type of light sources on the circuit. Poplawski reviewed the recently published NEMA SSL-7A, which defines design specifications and compliance test procedures for LED sources and dimmers, and offered suggestions for managing risk.
Michael Royer of PNNL discussed color shift, using data from DOE's GATEWAY and CALiPER programs and the L Prize competition. He pointed out that color shift is a concern wherever color quality is important, and that its importance can vary, depending on the application. Royer noted that color shift can lead to premature failure, which can affect the payback period on products and can cause consumer dissatisfaction with the product. He explained that while color shift can be an issue with LEDs, it's not inherent to the technology, and not all LEDs have color-shift problems. Royer observed that IES LM-80-08 describes how to measure chromaticity changes over time, but there is no equivalent to TM-21 for predicting future color stability performance, as TM-21 does for lumen maintenance. He said the color-shift situation is improving, with more widespread recognition and new solutions now available or in the works.
Naomi Miller of PNNL talked about flicker, which can cause various physiological problems – including some serious ones in susceptible populations – and is not always visible to the naked eye. She reviewed the relationship between flicker and a product's modulation frequency, modulation amplitude, DC component, and the duty cycle, and discussed the two IES metrics for flicker – percent flicker and the flicker index – noting the strengths and weaknesses of each. Miller stated that because there is no reliable flicker metric reported by manufacturers, users and specifiers should see the product in person and learn to test for flicker. She identified SSL products that are more likely to flicker, including AC LEDs, DC LEDs with simple or inexpensive drivers, integral lamp LEDs on some electronic transformers, and LEDs dimmed with phase-cut dimmers.
Poplawski then discussed power quality, which he called a system characteristic rather than a component characteristic. He noted that power quality degradation can lead to greater electricity transport losses and can damage or degrade the performance of electronic equipment. Characterizing common power quality metrics (power factor and THD) as useful but imperfect, Poplawski observed that the power quality of LED products appears on average to be better than that of the incumbents they're replacing. He said concerns about the power quality of any new technology replacing an incumbent should be weighed in context with the power quality of the incumbent, the relative power or current draw versus the incumbent, and the power quality and relative power or current draw of other connected components in the system.
Brodrick concluded the workshop by thanking participants for their input and participation. He noted that the next DOE SSL workshop – the eleventh annual SSL R&D Workshop – will be held January 28-30, 2014, and he encouraged attendees to stay apprised of all DOE SSL program activities by visiting www.ssl.energy.gov.