This study investigates the impacts of potential tellurium (Te) supply constraints on future cadmium telluride (CdTe) photovoltaic (PV) module deployment and finds: (1) CdTe PV modules can remain cost competitive with future projections for crystalline silicon PV modules—even with a 10-times increase in Te prices—if technology and manufacturing improvement efficiency and thickness targets are realized and (2) If copper mining is relied upon as the sole source of Te, CdTe PV technology may be constrained to around 10 gigawatts (GW) of annual production by 2020 and 40–70 GW of annual CdTe production by 2030.
